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Review&Forecast Article 1: THE RISE AND THE SELF-DESTRUCTION OF THE GLOBALIZATION SCHEME
(From Sept. 7, 2012 to )
2.YEN/DOLLAR, TRADE DEFICITS, AND THE BOOM
BUST CYCLES OF USA, Chih Kwan Chen (Aug., 2003)
2A.MORE ABOUT TRADES AND ECONOMIC CYCLES Chih Kwan Chen (Jan., 2006)
3.BEHIND THE GYRATIONS OF EURO/DOLLAE EXCHANGE
RATE, Chih Kwan Chen (Jan., 2004)
7.GLOBALIZATION UTOPIA, Chih Kwan Chen (Feb. 23, 2004)
8. Golgo 13, The Currency Manipulation Plot:
a serious analysis, Chih Kwan Chen (March, 2004)
9.A TRADE DEFICIT WEIGHTED DOLLAE INDEX, Chih Kwan Chen (November 17, 2006)
10.ANATOMY OF ECONOMIC BUBBLES: US economy from 1960 to 2007, Chih Kwan Chen (March 6, 2008)
11.CRUDE OIL PRICE, MYTHS AND FACTS by Chih Kwan Chen (August 1, 2008)
14.TESTING AN INFLATION AND RECESSION INDICATOR:
How Reliable Is Bond Vigilantes ? (June 2, 2010)
15.article 15:THE CURRENT STATUS OF U S ECONOMY (March 18, 2011)
17.JAPAN SYDROME AMERICAN STYLE (June 14, 2012)
17A. UPDATE TO ARTICLE 17, "JAPAN SYNDROME AMERICAN STYLE"
(Latest udate, August 7, 2012)
18. RUNAWAY US TRADE DEFICIT BASED GLOBALIZATION:
The Cause of Intensified Income Disparity (July 30, 2012)
b. Currencies and Gold
The measures used for the study are common sense, logic and objective analyses
of the actual economic data, the essential ingrediants of an exact science. In an exact science regularities are
derived from a subset of data to form a model. The model is immediately applied to a larger set of data. If the
model fails to explain all the data in the enlarged data set, then the model is either modified until it
explains all the data or must be abandoned and a new model searched. This check, modification and check process is
repeated again and again until all the data that the model should explain are explained. Only at that stage
the model is elevated as a theory. Even after the formation of a theory the requirement of predicting future data
and check against new incoming data persists. If a so called "economic theory" cannot explain the economic events happened
in a prolonged period, like the globalization era since early 1980s, then we know that the theory is not based on
an exact science.
This research along the line of an exact science has started in 1998 after the frustration at the failure of
modern economics to explain the "Asian Financial Crisis". The first result is article 1 of December, 1998.
Article 1 was posted on a personal web page hosted by Prodigy for several years and then is moved to this
website in 2003. Articles posted on this website are more rigorous research results, whereas Comments and other
short articles are less exhaustive works.
2011_09_01: Due to the mishap related to the renewal of web hosting service,
from the midnight of Aug. 25, 2011 to about 8:00 pm of Aug. 30, 2011, visitors of this website probably
have been directed to an ad page of sedonaparking.com. We sincerely appologize for the inconvenience
caused by this mishap.
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Comments
Comment 87: Never ending QE; FED is the hostage of stock market (September 19, 2013)
Comment 86: ABOUT QE3 (January 16, 2012)
Comment 85: What is “Expanded Currency Swap Agreement”? A “Bernanke Plan” To Wrap Up Euro Crises Temporarily? A Twisted QE3? (December 7, 2011)
Comment 84: Euro Winners and Losers (November 27, 2011)
Comment 83: The Cause of European Crisis is Euro, the “Currency Manipulation Plot of the Third Kind”
(October 1, 2011)
Comment 82: Recession Watch 2011 (2) (August 2, 2011)
Comment 81: Recession Watch; serious cut of government budget deficit will induce a recesion (July 23, 2011)
Comment 80: What is GDP? Why it should not be taken as a serious gauge to measure the economic
well being. (February 28, 2011)
Comment 79: More about the "January Barometer" (November 30, 2010)
Comment 78: The Folly of GDP Mania (August 26, 2010)
Comment 77: US Economic Recovery Analyzed from the Income Side (August 16, 2010)
Comment 76: U. S. Trade Deficit with China and the Impact of Chinese Yuan Revaluation (July 12, 2010)
Comment 75: What is Japan Syndrome ? Why does it matter? (June 17, 2010)
Comment 74: The Euro Crisis, the Cause and the Impacts (June 9, 2010)
Comment 73: Is China's economy going to overheat? (December 31, 2009)
Comment 72: Behind the rise of Euro, why and what next. Pulse of globalization (4)
(December 7, 2009)
Comment 71: What is a "recession"? Are there any mechanical forewarning signals about incoming recessions? (Aug. 27, 2009)
Comment 67: From US economic data to inflation, recession, FED and stock market. (Latest update Aug. 10, 2009)
Comment 68A: Who are buying crude oil? How to explain contradictory conclusions of Comment 68 and an article of "Market Watch"? (Aug. 3, 2009)
Comment 70: U. S. Stock Market(5). Valuable lessons from the 2000-2001 recession (July 20, 2009)
Comment 69: In defense of Alan Greenspan: What is the real cause of the housing bubble? (July 12, 2009)
Comment 68: Who are buying crude oil? (June 3, 2009)
Comment 66: Remarks about foreign capital inflow and US trade deficits. The pulse of globalization (3) (March 20, 2009)
Comment 65: An In Depth Study of the "January Barometer". US Stock Market (4) (February 3, 2009)
Comment 64: US Stock Market(3). Endings of bear markets. (Dec. 10, 2008)
Comment 63: Why the Treasury proposal to artificially push mortgage rates for the purchasing of new homes only to 4.5% may trigger another
financial firestorm. (Dec. 4, 2008)
Comment 62: US Stock Market (2). Why the recent violent gyrations? Is "synthesized unwinding of yen-carry trades" the answer? (October 31, 2008)
Comment 47A: It is really the time to dial 911 to Japan for help! (Oct. 23)
Comment 61: How far will US stock prices sink? (Based on a technical analysis) (Oct. 7, 2008)
Comment 60: Two blocked comments to an opinion column on WSJ online and beyond. "Tracing the liquidity squeeze (10) and "The pulse of globalization (2).
(October 2, 2008)
Comment 59: An anatomy of the meltdown of Wall Street and beyond. Tracing the liquidity squeeze (9) (Sept. 25, 2008)
Comment 58: Can R.T.C. style solution save Wall Street? Tracing the liquidity squeeze (8) (Sept. 19, 2008)
Comment 57: Trade Deficit and Other Three Deficits in I.O.U.S.A. (August 24, 2008)
Comment 56. Tracing the Liquidity Squeeze (7): Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, another financial storm in the making. (July 14, 2008)
Comment 55: USA(1) Americans are moderating the consumption of food and gasoline, but are substantially increasing spending on housing?
(May 15, 2008)
Comment 54: Tracing the Liquidity Squeeze (6): Who hold those toxic structured securities that are poisoning
the financial market? Can FED save them? (April 27, 2008; last revision on April 28, 2008)
Comment 53: Tracing the liquidity squeeze (5) Now the banking crisis? (January 3, 2008)
Comment 52: The pulse of globalization (1) From sovereign wealth funds to currency wars (December 14, 2007)
Comment 51: Tracing the liquidity squeeze (4): More about the super-SIV, the volatilities of stock markets and the ramifications of the US
Government bailout of mortgage markets
(Nov. 16, 2007, revised on Nov. 24 about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)
Comment 50: Tracing the liquidity squeeze (3): Oil price, SIV, Super-SIV and bail outs(Oct. 29, 2007)
Comment 49: Tracing the liquidity squeeze: FED's next move? Why the value of Dollar vs. Yen is crucial. (Oct. 1, 2007)
Comment 48: Tracing the panic in the financial market: Self healing? Then what? (Aug. 21, 2007)
Comment 47: Time to dial 911 to Japanese Government again to save the global financial system (Aug. 16, 2007)
Comment 46: The liquidity crisis and the stagnating US trade deficit (Aug. 12, 2007)
Comment 45: What the employment statistics tells us and what it does not (July 17, 2007)
Comment 44: A prognosis of China's stock market: what have we learned from Taiwan's stock
market movements? (June 14, 2007)
Comment 43: Inflation fear: the outlook of CPI-core in 2007 (May 19, 2007)
Comment 42: If mortgage woe worsens, what can FED do? (March 29, 2007)
Comment 41: How oil price gyration has triggered the unwinding of yen carry
trades that in turn has induced the global stock market debacle
(March 7, 2007)
Comment 40A: GDP Implicit Price Deflator of China (Feb. 28, 2007, data updated up to Quarter 1 of 2007 on April 19, 2007)
Comment 40: What is the actual inflation rate of China in recent years? (Feb. 20, 2007)
Comment 39: Taipei has lost its magic "ring" (Feb. 14, 2007, Revised on Feb. 27, 2007, Corrections and Addendum on June 24, 2009)
Comment 38: Prospects of US economy in 2007 and beyond (Jan. 2, 2007)
Comment 37: Dollar and stock prices (Nov. 30, 2006)
Comment 36: What does China's one trillion dollar foreign currency reserve mean? (Oct. 30, 2006)
Comment 35: North Korea's nuclear weapons and the danger to the globalization process (Oct. 9, 2006)
Comment 34: Comparing Philadelphia Fed's indices with real personal consumption expenditure (Oct. 2, 2006)
Comment 33: Thailand's military coup and its ramification to the globalization process. (Sept. 22, 2006)
Comment 32: How the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will affect the globalization process. (July 24, 2006)
Comment 31: Correlation among interest rate, inflation and economic growth in the globalization and pre-globalization eras. (July 3, 2006)
Comment 30: Inflation, CPI, CPI-core and all that (May 29, 2006)
Comment 29A: Addendum to Comment 29: How to bridge the gap between household income survey and personal income per capita. (May 5, 2006)
Comment 29: Economic realities behind the gloomy mood of US public (April 24, 2006)
Comment 28: Globalization Trap and Signs of Crack in the Foundation of the Scheme (March 14, 2006)
Comment 27: Globalization, Greenspan, Bernanke, trade-deficit-dollars, oil, and all that. (Feb. 7, 2006)
Comment 26: Gauging the evolution of China and the future of globalization (Dec. 3, 2005)
Comment 25: Is a recession looming? 3. The power of imports to boost GDP. Connclusion: A recession is not likely within next 12 months.
(Oct. 18, 2005)
Comment 24: Is a recession looming? 2. Why oil price has lost its punch. How about the hurricane?
(Sept. 8, 2005)
Comment 23: Is a recession looming? 1. Gauging the effectiveness of FED tightening. (Sept. 1, 2005)
Comment 22: The impact of Chinese Yuan's revaluation (July 4, 2005)
Comment 21: Dissecting the "conundrum" of long-short yield difference (June 23, 2005)
Comment 20: The Geopolitical conflicts in Asia-Pacific region and the globalization.
(April 29, 2005)
Comment 19: The collapse of America's high tech education?
(April 13, 2005)
Comment 18: Is America sinking into an abyss or climbing toward a paradise?
(April 6, 2005)
Comment 17: The
Logic behind the Interest Rates (March 10, 2005)
Comment 16: Who will not sell Dollar. Who will sell Dollar.
(March 04, 2005)
Comment 15:
Looming Confrontation about the Value of Chinese Yuan (Jan.31, 2005)
Comment 14: Falling Dollar, Economic
Myths and Realities (Dec. 1, 2004)
Comment 13: Stock Markets and the Demographic Change
(Sept. 4, 2004)
Comment 12. The danger of an economic downward spiral
when stock markets become the driving force. (Aug. 23, 2004)
Comment 11. Why the growth rate of US real personal consumption
is slowing down? (Aug. 22, 2004)
Comment 10. Why oil price is so high? (Aug. 22, 2004)
Comment 9. Some regularities in the global housing markets
(Aug. 20, 2004)
Comment 8. How China affects global economy (May 26, 2004)
Comment 7. Why the globalization scheme is at the verge
of cllapse? (Nov. 8, 2003)
Comment 6. What causes ebbs and flows in merchandise trade
balance?(Nov. 8, 2003)
Comment 5. What is driving the economy in the era of globalization?(
Nov. 8, 2003)
Comment 4. What is "capital flow"? (Nov. 8, 2003)
Comment 3. Why the theory of "buying power parity" is
wrong (Nov. 8, 2003)
Comment 2. "Stock market dances around the real economy"
(Nov. 8, 2003)
Comment 1. About projecting financial markets (Nov. 8,
2003)
Other Short Articles
USA Outlook Update (July 28, 2007, New graph added on Nov. 7, 2010): A Recession Watch! Massive downward revisions in the 2nd Quarter (2007) GDP report paints
a much weaker US economy than we have perceived.
USA Outlook Update (May 2, 2007; Note added on March 5, 2010): Current status of US economy and its prospects.
USA Outlook Update (Nov. 19, 2006): Inflation update
USA Outlook Update (Oct. 31, 2006): September consumer spending is strong! Media reports are wrong.
USA Outlook Update (Sept. 7, 2006): Personal Consumption Expenditure and GDP from 2005 to 2006; a recession is not in sight.
Outlook Update (July 28, 2006): GDP of second quarter of 2006, and the prospect of inflation and interest rate
Outlook Update (May 26, 2006): Revised real GDP of 1st Quarter of 2006 and its adjustments
Outlook Update (May 19, 2006): GDP of 3rd Quarter of 2005 to 1st Quarter of 2006 and beyond
Out Look Update (
January 28, 2006): GDP of 4-th Quarter of 2005
Out Look Update (
January 21, 2006)
Out Look Update (
August 18, 2005)
Out Look Update (April 14, 2005)
Out Look Update (Feb. 12, 2005)
Out Look Update (Jan.17, 2005)
Out Look Update (Jan.07, 2005)
Discussion: Trade
Deficit and GDP (Oct. 22, 2004)
Discussion: Second Quarter
GDP and Beyond (Sept. 15, 2004)
General Discussion (Aug.
3, 2004)
General Discussion (July
19, 2004)
Inflation (June 26, 2004)
About Jobs: a technical
analysis (Feb. 25, 2004)
US economy: a long term
projection (Nov. 7, 2003)
General Discussions
Currency & Gold Update (Jan. 31, 2007): Yen carry trade and the danger
of dynamic hedging
Currency & Gold Update (April 13, 2006):
From gold to Euro, Yen and Yuan ETF's?
Currency & Gold Update (Nov. 12, 2005):
Yen carry trade
Discussion (June 14, 2005)
Discussion (January 19, 2005)
Questions about Chinese Yuan: (Nov. 21, 2004)
The Danger of a Currency War : (Sept. 28, 2004)
The Danger of Hasty Dollar Devaluation : (Sept. 26,
2004)
Divergence of long and short term interest rates in USA and its implication
to currency markets: (Sept. 23, 2004)
Euro/Dollar
Discussion:(Nov. 21, 2004)
Discussion: (Aug. 3, 2004)
Discussion: (May 15, 2004)
Yen/Dollar
Discussion:(Nov. 21, 2004)
Discussion: (Aug. 3, 2004)
Discussion: (May 18, 2004)
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Purpose and evolution of this website
The purpose of this website is to forecast the global economy. This effort
is born out of the frustration with modern economics, which has failed
persistently to anticipate and explain the major economic events
since the era of globalization dawned in early 1980's.
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